Ɖoɖo ɖe wo nɔewo yome ƒe mɔnukpɔkpɔ le roulette me
Amadede ɖeka ƒe ɖoɖo didiwo ɖe wo nɔewo yome bɔ. Gɔme aɖeke mele wo ŋu na trɔtrɔ si kplɔe ɖo o.
Dzĩ atɔ̃ ɖe wo nɔewo yome: 2.7%. Ewo: 0.074%. Le fefeɣi si me trɔtrɔ 200 le me la, amadede ɖeka ade ɖe wo nɔewo yome dzena zi geɖe wu be madze o.
Zi nenie gabubu ɖe wo nɔewo yome vana
Bɛt sɔsɔe le ʋuafɔ zero ɖeka dzi bua trɔtrɔ 19 le 37 me. Fli ɖe sia ɖe fia mɔnukpɔkpɔ be trɔtrɔ aɖewo ɖe wo nɔewo yome nabu katã, kple ga si Martingale fefewɔla, si tsɔa bɛtga ɖoa zi eve le gabubu ɖe sia ɖe megbe, bu va ɖo ɣemaɣi.
| gabubu ɖe wo nɔewo yome | mɔnukpɔkpɔ | abe 1 le … me | gabubu va ɖo fifia | bɛt si kplɔe ɖo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Mɔnukpɔkpɔ la nye 19/37 si wotsɔ dzi ɖe eɖokui dzi zi ɖeka le gabubu ɖe sia ɖe ta, tso trɔtrɔ ɖeka aɖe dzi. Trɔtrɔ geɖe le fefeɣi didi me, siwo dzi ɖoɖo sia tɔgbe ate ŋu adze egɔme le, eyata le fiẽ ɖeka me la, edzɔna zi geɖe wu ale si fli ɖeka fia.
Ɖoɖo ɖeka
MɔnukpɔkpɔakɔntabubuMɔnukpɔkpɔMɔnukpɔkpɔ be emetsonu aɖe nadzɔ, tso 0 va ɖo 1 alo tso 0% va ɖo 100%. Xexlẽdzesi ɖeka: 1/37 = 2.70%.Xlẽe blibo → be trɔtrɔ k siwo gbɔna la katã nanye dzĩbɛtDzĩBɛt sɔsɔe ɖe xexlẽdzesi dzĩ 18 la dzi. Le Frans gbe me: rouge.Xlẽe blibo → nye (18/37)ᵏ. Eve: 23.7%. Atɔ̃: 2.7%. Ewo: 0.074%, abe 1 le 1,350 me ene. Blaeve: 1 le miliɔn 1.8 me. Blaeve vɔ ade, si nye Monte Carlo tɔ si ƒo wo katã ta: 1 le miliɔn 137 me. Esiawo nye mɔnukpɔkpɔ be ɖoɖo tɔxɛ aɖe nadze egɔme le trɔtrɔ tɔxɛ aɖe dzi, si nye nyabiase si kloe ame aɖeke mebiana vavã o.
Le fefeɣi aɖe me
Nyabiase si amewo bia vavã nye “ɖe ɖoɖo k adze le afi aɖe le nye fefeɣi me a?”, eye ŋuɖoɖo la lolo wu (18/37)ᵏ sasasã, elabena fefeɣi si me trɔtrɔ 200 le naa teƒe kloe 200 si ɖoɖo ate ŋu adze egɔme le. Amadede ɖeka ade alo wu ɖe wo nɔewo yome, dzĩ alo yibɔbɛtYibɔBɛt sɔsɔe ɖe xexlẽdzesi yibɔ 18 dzi. Frans gbe me: noir.Xlẽe blibo →, dzena le fefeɣi si me trɔtrɔ 200 le me abe zi 94% ene; enyi alo wu abe 47% ene; ewo alo wu abe 14% ene. Ne èyɔ amadede la do ŋgɔ la, mɔnukpɔkpɔwo ɖina va ɖo abe 75%, 27% kple 7% ene. Fefewɔla si nɔa anyi fiẽ blibo la akpɔ ɖoɖo didiwo fiẽ sia fiẽ.
Nu si ta wòle vevie na Martingale
Bɛtga ƒe tɔtrɔ ɖoɖoaɖaŋuBɛtga ƒe tɔtrɔ ɖoɖoSe ɖe sia ɖe si trɔa bɛtga le emetsonu siwo va yi nu. Tɔtrɔ ɖoɖo si dzia bɛtga ɖe edzi le gabubu megbe kɔnɛ ɖe dzi le gabubuwo megbe, eye esi dzia bɛtga ɖe edzi le dziɖuɖu megbe kɔnɛ ɖe dzi le dziɖuɖuwo megbe.Xlẽe blibo → si dzia bɛtga ɖe edzi le gabubu megbe ɖe sia ɖe la, ɖoɖo ƒe didime aɖe li si gbãnɛ: gabubu ade tso $10 dzi le $500 ƒe seɖoƒe, ewo na FibonacciaɖaŋuFibonacciBɛtga ƒe tɔtrɔ ɖoɖo si dzea ɖoɖo 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13… yome: afɔ ɖeka ɖe ŋgɔ le gabubu megbe, afɔ eve ɖe megbe le dziɖuɖu megbe.Xlẽe blibo →, atɔ̃ na bɛtga dzidzi zi etɔ̃ le wuievewobɛtWuieve1–12, 13–24 alo 25–36, fetu 2:1.Xlẽe blibo → dzi. Mɔnukpɔkpɔ be gabubu ade nava ɖe wo nɔewo yome le bɛt sɔsɔe dzi nye (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% le agbagbadzedze ɖe sia ɖe me, eye fefeɣi si me trɔtrɔ 200 le ate ŋu alé agbagbadzedze abe 100 ene ɖe eme, eya ta gbãgbã la vana le fefeɣi ene le atɔ̃ me kloe siwo ƒe didime nye nenema. Ɖoɖo ɖe wo nɔewo yome ƒe mɔnukpɔkpɔ le roulette me ye nye nu si ta afi si wòdzea anyi le mebɔ o.
Xexlẽdzesi xɔdzowo kple fafɛwo
Akɔnta ma ke ku ɖe xexlẽdzesi ɖeka ƒe bɛtwobɛtXexlẽdzesi ɖekaXexlẽdzesi ɖeka, fetu 35:1.Xlẽe blibo → hã ŋu. Le trɔtrɔ 300 me la, zi si wokpɔ mɔ na be xexlẽdzesi ɖe sia ɖe nadze nye 8.1; kakaɖe ƒe dzidzenuakɔntabubuKakaɖe ƒe dzidzenuKakaɖe ƒe ke; didime si emetsonu aɖe ɖona tso asixɔxɔ si wokpɔ mɔ na gbɔ zi geɖe.Xlẽe blibo → la nye abe 2.8 ene. Xexlẽdzesi aɖe adze zi 15 eye bubu zi 2 le dzɔdzɔme ko me, ɣesiaɣi. Emetsonuwo ƒe ɖaŋɖi si ɖe xexlẽdzesi “xɔdzo”wo fia la le normal ƒe nɔnɔme ƒe tame ɖem fia. Numekuƒe la ɖe trɔtrɔ ale si hiã hafi xexlẽdzesi xɔdzodzixɔse tovoXexlẽdzesi xɔdzoXexlẽdzesi si do zi geɖe wu alesi wokpɔ mɔ na le ɣeyiɣi kpui sia me. Le ʋuafɔ dzɔdzɔe dzi la, megblɔa nu aɖeke ɖi o.Xlẽe blibo → nafia nu aɖe la gɔme (akpe geɖe, tso ʋuafɔ ɖeka si wonya me).
Ɖokuisinɔnɔ ye nye nya vevitɔ
Dzĩ ewo ɖe wo nɔewo yome mewɔnɛ be yibɔ nado bɔbɔe wu o, eye mewɔnɛ be dzĩ nado bɔbɔe wu hã o. Wo eve siaa nye 18/37. Ɖoɖo ɖe wo nɔewo yome nye nudzɔdzɔ ƒe ɖoɖowo ƒe nɔnɔme, eye ne womeli o la, anye nu si woakpɔ ɖe nyuie: trɔtrɔ 200 ƒe ɖoɖo si me ɖoɖo aɖeke medidi wu ene o la, anye kpeɖodzi sesẽ wu sasasã be wowɔ ameblee wu esi me ɖoɖo wuieve le.
Akɔntaŋɔŋlɔ
Nyabiasewo
Yibɔ 26 le Monte Carlo le August ƒe ŋkeke 18, 1913 ye nye esi ŋkɔ xɔ. Wogblɔ be dzĩ 32 ɖe wo nɔewo yome dzɔ le Amerika kasino aɖe me le ƒe 1943 me. Wo eve siaa sɔ kple dzɔdzɔme ne wobu trɔtrɔ ale si kasinowo wɔna ŋu.
Enye 18/37 le mɔ eve siaa nu. Ɖo bɛt si wò ɖoɖo gblɔ, alo mègaɖo aɖeke o.
Ao. Akpaɖeɖe dzena ne dodɔwɔnuDoDo 37 siwo dzi xexlẽdzesiwo le le rotor la dzi dometɔ ɖeka. Woyɔnɛ hã be slot, cup.Xlẽe blibo → aɖewo dze zi geɖe wu le trɔtrɔ akpe geɖe me, menye abe amadede ɖeka ƒe ɖoɖo ene o.
Modzaka kple akɔntabubu
Te wo kpɔ le ɖokuiwò si gbã. Wobla ŋuɖoɖo ɖe sia ɖe ɖe go; ʋui ne èsɔ gbe.
Le titina me la, trɔtrɔ nenie wòbiana le Europa ʋuafɔ dzi hafi xexlẽdzesi 37 la dometɔ ɖe sia ɖe nado zi ɖeka ya teti?
Fia ŋuɖoɖo la
Ŋuɖoɖo Abe trɔtrɔ 155 ene le titina me; titinatɔ la nye 147.
Xlẽ lalaŋɔli la xexlẽdzesi yeye ɖeka ɖeka. Trɔtrɔ gbãtɔ ɖea xexlẽdzesi yeye fiana ɣesiaɣi. Ne èkpɔ xexlẽdzesi 1 xoxo la, dodɔwɔnuDoDo 37 siwo dzi xexlẽdzesiwo le le rotor la dzi dometɔ ɖeka. Woyɔnɛ hã be slot, cup.Xlẽe blibo → 36 le 37 me nye yeyewo, eya ta xexlẽdzesi yeye si kplɔe ɖo xɔa trɔtrɔ 37/36 le titina me. Ne èkpɔ xexlẽdzesi k xoxo la, exɔa 37/(37 − k).
Tsɔ lalaŋɔliawo kpe ɖe wo nɔewo ŋu: 37/37 + 37/36 + 37/35 + … + 37/1 = 37 × (1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + … + 1/37) ≈ 37 × 4.20 = trɔtrɔ 155.5.
Eƒe akpa gãtɔ le nuwuwu. Xexlẽdzesi mamlɛtɔ ɖeɖe ko xɔa trɔtrɔ 37 le titina me, eye atɔ̃ mamlɛtɔwo xɔa abe 85 ene. Le Amerika ʋuafɔ dzi la, akɔnta ma ke naa abe 161 ene. Esiae nye coupon collector ƒe kuxi la; titina ma ke dona tso akɔntabubu si wozãna ɣesiaɣi me.
Le trɔtrɔ 37 me le Europa ʋuafɔ dzi, trɔtrɔ ɖeka na do ɖe sia ɖe, xexlẽdzesi vovovo nenie nàkpɔ mɔ be yeakpɔ?
Fia ŋuɖoɖo la
Ŋuɖoɖo Abe 23.6 ene. Xexlẽdzesiawo ƒe akpa etɔ̃lia kloe, abe 13 ene, medo kura o.
Tsɔ xexlẽdzesi ɖeka, abe 17 ene. Le trɔtrɔ ɖe sia ɖe me la, mɔnukpɔkpɔ be madoa o nye 36/37, eya ta mɔnukpɔkpɔ be magado le trɔtrɔ 37 la dometɔ aɖeke me o nye (36/37)³⁷ ≈ 0.363.
Xexlẽdzesi ɖe sia ɖe ƒe mɔnukpɔkpɔ sɔ, eya ta le titina me xexlẽdzesi 37 × 0.363 ≈ 13.4 mele eme o eye 37 − 13.4 ≈ 23.6 doa, wo dometɔ geɖe zi eve alo wu nenema.
Roulette fefewɔlawo yɔa esia be akpa etɔ̃lia ƒe se. Menye se wònye o, ke boŋ gbugbɔdodo ƒe akɔnta ko: le ɖoɖo si didi abe ʋuafɔ la ene me la, xexlẽdzesiawo ƒe akpa etɔ̃lia kloe medoa o, le ʋuafɔ dzɔdzɔe dzi abe bubu ɖe sia ɖe dzi ene. Le do 38 dzi la, akpa la nye (37/38)³⁸ ≈ 0.363 hã; le ʋuafɔ gã dzi la, eɖoa 1/e ≈ 0.368 gbɔ.
Xɔ̃wò aɖe ɖe ŋkɔŋɔŋlɔ eve fia wò, amadede 50 le ɖe sia ɖe me, dzĩbɛtDzĩBɛt sɔsɔe ɖe xexlẽdzesi dzĩ 18 la dzi. Le Frans gbe me: rouge.Xlẽe blibo → alo yibɔbɛtYibɔBɛt sɔsɔe ɖe xexlẽdzesi yibɔ 18 dzi. Frans gbe me: noir.Xlẽe blibo →, eye wogblɔ be wo katã tso ʋuafɔ aɖe si dzi woɖe zerowoʋuafɔZeroDo gbemumu ɖeka si dzi bɛt sɔsɔe, wuieve alo sɔti ƒe bɛt aɖeke metsyɔna o; kasino ƒe viɖe ƒe dzɔtsoƒe. Woyɔnɛ hã be zero ɖeka, 0.Xlẽe blibo → ɖa le dzi. Ɖeka trɔa amadede zi 25 eye eƒe ɖoɖo ɖe wo nɔewo yome si didi wu nye ade. Evelia trɔa amadede zi 35 eye eƒe ɖoɖo medidi wu etɔ̃ kpɔ o. Kae nye esi wowɔ ɖe susu me?
Fia ŋuɖoɖo la
Ŋuɖoɖo Evelia. Ŋkɔŋɔŋlɔ vavãtɔ trɔa amadede abe zi 24 alo 25 ene. Esi trɔa zi 35 la dona abe zi ɖeka le ŋkɔŋɔŋlɔ 500 me ene, eye esi me ɖoɖo aɖeke medidi wu etɔ̃ o la dona abe zi eve le 100 me ene.
Amadede yeye ɖe sia ɖe gbugbɔa esi do do va yi la alo etrɔna, afã kple afã, eya ta mɔnukpɔkpɔ 49 be woatrɔ naa tɔtrɔ 24.5 le titina me, ɖewohĩ akpe ɖe eŋu alo aɖe le eŋu abe 3.5 ene. Blaetɔ̃ vɔ atɔ̃ le afɔɖeɖe mawo dometɔ etɔ̃ wu titina la; ʋuafɔ dzɔdzɔe naa tɔtrɔ gbogbo ma abe zi ɖeka le ŋkɔŋɔŋlɔ 500 me ene.
Ɖoɖowo hã gblɔa nya ma ke. Ŋkɔŋɔŋlɔ vavãtɔ si me amadede 50 le la, ɖoɖo si ƒe didime nye ene alo wu le eme abe 98% ene, eye eƒe ɖoɖo si didi wu nyea atɔ̃ alo ade zi geɖe.
Ne wobia amewo be woawɔ nudzɔdzɔ ŋkɔŋɔŋlɔ ɖe susu me la, wotrɔa amadede zi geɖe akpa, elabena ɖoɖo ene alo atɔ̃ le abe ɖoɖo aɖe ene na wo. Taylor (2021) ɖe dzesi ma ke fia le ga ƒe tadada ŋkɔŋɔŋlɔ siwo sukuviwo wɔ ɖe susu me: nudzɔdzɔ vavãtɔ me ɖoɖo ɖe wo nɔewo yome bɔ wu ale si amewo kpɔ mɔ na.
Kasino ŋuti ŋutinyagbalẽ aɖe ƒo nu tso fefewɔla aɖe si ƒe xexlẽdzesi do zi atɔ̃ ɖe wo nɔewo yome ŋu eye wòyɔe be eyae nye nusi gbɔ ame aɖeke mede kpɔ o. Aleke gbegbe wòsẽ be wòadzɔ le Europa ʋuafɔ dzi? Eye zi nenie wòle be wòadzɔ le afi aɖe le kasino ɖeka si me kplɔ̃ 20 le, eye wotrɔa ɖe sia ɖe zi 40 le gaƒoƒo ɖeka me, ŋkeke kple zã?
Fia ŋuɖoɖo la
Ŋuɖoɖo Xexlẽdzesi si woyɔ ŋkɔ do zi atɔ̃ ɖe wo nɔewo yome: 1 le miliɔn 69 me. Xexlẽdzesi ɖe sia ɖe si gbugbɔ do zi ene le edodo gbãtɔ megbe: 1 le miliɔn 1.87 me. Kasino ma trɔa ʋuafɔwo abe zi miliɔn 7 ene le ƒe ɖeka me, eya ta ele be wòakpɔ ɖoɖo atɔ̃ zi etɔ̃ alo ene le ƒe ɖeka me.
Xexlẽdzesi si woyɔ ŋkɔ ƒe mɔnukpɔkpɔ le trɔtrɔ ɖe sia ɖe me nye 1/37, eya ta atɔ̃ ɖe wo nɔewo yome ƒe mɔnukpɔkpɔ nye (1/37)⁵ = 1 le 69,343,957 me. Gake ame aɖeke meyɔa xexlẽdzesi la ŋkɔ do ŋgɔ o. Nusianu si do gbã la, ele be trɔtrɔ ene siwo kplɔe ɖo nagbugbɔe: (1/37)⁴ = 1 le 1,874,161 me.
Kplɔ̃ 20 × trɔtrɔ 40 × gaƒoƒo 24 × ŋkeke 365 = trɔtrɔ 7,008,000 le ƒe ɖeka me. Trɔtrɔ ɖe sia ɖe ate ŋu adze ɖoɖo aɖe gɔme, eya ta kasino la kpɔa mɔ na ɖoɖo atɔ̃ 7,008,000/1,874,161 ≈ 3.7 le ƒe ɖeka me.
Ŋkɔŋɔŋlɔ ɖoɖoɖeka aɖeke meli na nu sia tɔgbe o, eye mehiã hã o: nu si dzɔna ŋutɔ le kplɔ̃ ɖeka ŋu la nye nu si dzɔna ɣesiaɣi le kasino blibo la me, eye woƒoa nu tso kplɔ̃ si ŋu wòdzɔ le la ŋu. Ŋutinya la, si le Goldman (2007) me, dzɔ le ʋuafɔ zero eve dzi, afi si xexlẽdzesiawo nye 1 le miliɔn 79 me kple 1 le miliɔn 2.09 me.
Nukokoe sue
Ɖoɖo didiwo ye nye alesi nudzɔdzɔ dzena.
Nunyaƒewo
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.