Aɖaŋu · Bɛtga dzidzi le gabubu megbe · aɖabaƒoƒo 9

Martingale aɖaŋu le roulette me

Martingale aɖaŋu le roulette me dɔa bɛtga eve le gabubu ɖe sia ɖe megbe eye wògbugbɔna ɖe bɛtga gɔmetɔ dzi le dziɖuɖu megbe. Dziɖuɖu ɖe sia ɖe xɔa gabubu siwo do ŋgɔ katã gbugbɔna kpe ɖe dzidzenu gɔmetɔ ɖeka ŋu. Axa sia ɖe nu si esia wɔna ɖe gaƒoƒu ŋu fia, kple nu si ta mate ŋu atrɔ gabubu si wokpɔ mɔ na o.

Ŋuɖoɖo kpuiMeɖua ʋuafɔ la dzi o. Abe bɛtga dɔdɔ eve ƒe aɖaŋu le roulette me ene la, Martingale naa dziɖuɖu sue geɖe kple gabubu gã ɣeaɖewoɣi. Le trɔtrɔ ɖe sia ɖe ƒe xexlẽme me la, gabubu si wokpɔ mɔ na gakpɔtɔ nye bɛtga katã ƒe 2.70%, eye esi tɔtrɔ ɖoɖo la ɖoa bɛt geɖe ta la, gabubu si wokpɔ mɔ na le fefeɣi ɖeka me lolo wu esi le bɛtga ɖeka ɖaa me, menye sue wu o.

Aleke Martingale ɖoɖo la wɔa dɔe le roulette me?

Bu, eye nàdɔe eve. Ɖu dzi, eye nàgbugbɔ ɖe bɛtga gɔmetɔ dzi. Esiae nye ɖoɖo blibo la. Kple bɛtga gɔmetɔ $10 kple kplɔ̃ ƒe seɖoƒe $500 la, ɖoɖo la wua enu le gabubu ade megbe. Sɔti mamlɛtɔ nye mɔnukpɔkpɔ be nàɖo afɔɖeɖe ma dzi le bɛt sɔsɔe dzi, afi si gabubu ɖe sia ɖe ƒe mɔnukpɔkpɔ nye 19/37.

gabubu #bɛt si kplɔe ɖoga si wotsɔ de afɔku me katãp(ɖo edzi)
0$10$10100.00%
1$20$3051.35%
2$40$7026.37%
3$80$15013.54%
4$160$3106.95%
5$320$6303.57%
6$640$1,2701.83%
7$1,280$2,5500.94%

Bɛtga gɔmetɔ $10, kplɔ̃ ƒe seɖoƒe $500. Le gabubu ade megbe la, bɛt si kplɔe ɖo nye $640, si to seɖoƒe la ta: tɔtrɔ ɖoɖo la gbã eye wobu $630. Mɔnukpɔkpɔ be nàbu zi ade ɖe wo nɔewo yome le dzĩ dzi nye (19/37)^6 = 1.83%, zi ɖeka kloe le agbagbadzedze 55 me.

Zɔ to ɖoɖo la me

Gabubu tsɔa bɛtga la ɖoa zi eve. Dziɖuɖu gbugbɔa yina gɔmedzedzea.

1248163264Gabubu
bɛtga si kplɔe ɖo1emetsonu va ɖo fifia0trɔtrɔwo0

Bɛtgawo kple emetsonuwo le gɔmedze-bɛtga ƒe dzidzenu me.

Aleke fefeɣi ɖeka dzena?

Afɔɖeɖe sue siwo yi dzi, emegbe vɔ. Le roulette Martingale me la, bɛtga dɔdɔ eve ƒe ɖoɖo ɖe sia ɖe si wu enu tsɔa bɛtga gɔmetɔ ɖeka kpena ɖe eŋu, eya ta fli la dzina blewu. Ɖoɖo si ƒo ɖe seɖoƒe $500 ŋu la xɔa $630 gbugbɔna zi ɖeka: afɔɖeɖe 63 le afɔɖeɖe mawo dome.

Martingale fefeɣi ewo, bɛtga gɔmetɔ $10, seɖoƒe $500emetsonu tso gɔmedzedzea dzi
+$2,500$0−$1,000+$1,840−$5000125250375500trɔtrɔwoemetsonu
fefeɣi 1,000 × trɔtrɔ 500 · blu-dzĩ p10/p25/p75/p90, blu ɖɛ titinatɔ, kpɔɖeŋu 83 siwo meklẽ o · ʋã alɔ to nɔnɔmetata la dzi be nàkpɔ quantile le trɔtrɔ aɖe dzi
  • p10 −$1,000
  • p25 −$1,000
  • titinatɔ −$1,000
  • p75 +$930
  • p90 +$1,830
fefeɣi 1,000 × trɔtrɔ 500 · y-fli la le percentile 1lia–99lia me ko (nu gãtɔwo −$1,000 va ɖo +$2,640) · trɔtrɔ 500 · gɔmedze-bɛtga $10 · bɛt sɔsɔe
Fli ɖe sia ɖe nye fefeɣi ɖeka si me bɛt sɔsɔewo le, tso gaƒoƒu $1,000 me. Dzidzi didiwo, ɖiɖi kpata.
Afɔɖeɖe sue siwo yi dzi, emegbe vɔ si xɔa wo katã gbugbɔna zi ɖeka.

Kpɔɖeŋumɔ̃

Ɖoɖo ɖe sia ɖe wɔa fefeɣi 2,000 si me bɛt sɔsɔewo le, tso gaƒoƒu $1,000 me. Emetsonuwo trɔna enumake.

Gɔmedze-bɛtga
Kplɔ̃ ƒe seɖoƒe
Trɔtrɔ le fefeɣi ɖeka me
Fefeɣiwo ƒe emetsonuwo · fefeɣi 2,000 · trɔtrɔ 100 · gɔmedze-bɛtga $10 · seɖoƒe $500gabubu ← | → viɖe
−$1,000$0+$650
tsɔ alɔ ɖo ati dzi · dzĩ = fefeɣi siwo me nèbu ga, gbemumu = viɖe, ati ɖɛ la le $0 ƒe akpa eveawo dzi
fefeɣi siwo me viɖe le
40.8%
emetsonu ƒe titinatɔ
−$130
emetsonu ƒe titina
−$66.44
tɔtrɔ ɖoɖo gbã
59.3% le fefeɣiwo me
percentile 5lia
−$1,000
gaƒoƒu ƒe ɖiɖi gãtɔ ƒe titinatɔ
−$650

Fefeɣi geɖe wuna enu kple viɖe sue aɖe (40.8%), eye esiae hea amewo. Titina la le zero te (−$66.44) elabena gabubu le fefeɣi siwo me nèbu ga la me lolo: bɛtga ƒe tɔtrɔ ɖoɖo la ɖo kplɔ̃ ƒe seɖoƒe le fefeɣiwo ƒe 59.3% me. Ame si ɖoa bɛtga ɖeka ɖaa $10 le trɔtrɔ mawo ke me kpɔ mɔ be yeabu abe $27 ene.

Zi nenie gabubu ɖe wo nɔewo yome vana

Bɛt sɔsɔe le ʋuafɔ zero ɖeka dzi bua trɔtrɔ 19 le 37 me. Fli ɖe sia ɖe fia mɔnukpɔkpɔ be trɔtrɔ aɖewo ɖe wo nɔewo yome nabu katã, kple ga si Martingale fefewɔla, si tsɔa bɛtga ɖoa zi eve le gabubu ɖe sia ɖe megbe, bu va ɖo ɣemaɣi.

Gɔmedze-bɛtga
gabubu ɖe wo nɔewo yomemɔnukpɔkpɔabe 1 le … megabubu va ɖo fifiabɛt si kplɔe ɖo
151.4%2$1$2
226.4%4$3$4
313.5%7$7$8
47.0%14$15$16
53.6%28$31$32
61.8%55$63$64
70.94%106$127$128
80.48%207$255$256
90.25%403$511$512
100.13%784$1,023$1,024
110.065%1527$2,047$2,048
120.034%2974$4,095$4,096
130.017%5792$8,191$8,192
140.0089%11279$16,383$16,384
150.0046%21965$32,767$32,768

Mɔnukpɔkpɔ la nye 19/37 si wotsɔ dzi ɖe eɖokui dzi zi ɖeka le gabubu ɖe sia ɖe ta, tso trɔtrɔ ɖeka aɖe dzi. Trɔtrɔ geɖe le fefeɣi didi me, siwo dzi ɖoɖo sia tɔgbe ate ŋu adze egɔme le, eyata le fiẽ ɖeka me la, edzɔna zi geɖe wu ale si fli ɖeka fia.

Gabubu wuiatɔ̃ ɖe wo nɔewo yome dzɔna zi ɖeka kloe le agbagbadzedze 22,000 me. Esia dze abe dedienɔnɔ ene. Ke menye nenema o, le susu eve ta. Trɔtrɔ ɖe sia ɖe dzea agbagbadzedze yeye gɔme, eye trɔtrɔ alafa geɖe le fiẽ ɖeka me. Eye ame aɖeke meɖoa wuiatɔ̃ o: tso bɛtga gɔmetɔ $10 dzi la, seɖoƒe $500 wua bɛtga dɔdɔ eve nu le gabubu ade megbe, si dzɔna zi ɖeka kloe le agbagbadzedze 55 me.

Nu ka ta mate ŋu atrɔ mɔnukpɔkpɔwo o?

Asixɔxɔ si wokpɔ mɔ na kpena ɖe wo nɔewo ŋu. Ne bɛt ɖe sia ɖe ƒe asixɔxɔ si wokpɔ mɔ na nye eƒe bɛtga ƒe −2.70% la, ekema bɛtwo ƒe ɖoɖo ɖe sia ɖe, aleke ke wotia bɛtgawo o, ƒe asixɔxɔ si wokpɔ mɔ na nye bɛtga katã ƒe −2.70%. Bɛtga tiatia ate ŋu anɔ te ɖe emetsonu siwo va yi dzi; mate ŋu anɔ te ɖe esi gbɔna dzi o.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
wotia bᵢ hafi trɔtrɔ i; Xᵢ = ±1 le eɖokui si tso bᵢ gbɔ

Susu gbegblẽ siwo bɔ

“Ehiã be màɖu dzi zi ɖeka ko hafi màxɔ nu sia nu gbugbɔ.”
Enye nyateƒe le tɔtrɔ ɖoɖo si wu enu la me. Tɔtrɔ ɖoɖo si mewu enu o, le kplɔ̃ ƒe seɖoƒe alo wò gaƒoƒu ta, bua ɖoɖo blibo la, eye woɖoe ale be ɖoɖo ma alolo.
“Ne gaƒoƒu lolo ɖe edzi la, mate ŋu agbã o.”
Kplɔ̃ ƒe seɖoƒe la tɔa bɛtga dɔdɔ eve te hafi gaƒoƒu geɖe nawu nu. Ne seɖoƒe aɖeke meli o la, gaƒoƒu si hiã la lolona kabakaba ŋutɔ (exponentially), ke viɖe le aɖaŋu ƒe ƒoƒo ɖe sia ɖe me ya nɔa dzidzenu gɔmetɔ ɖeka ko.
“Gabubu ade ɖe wo nɔewo yome mate ŋu adzɔ kura o.”
Le dzĩ dzi la, edzɔna le trɔtrɔ ade ƒe ɣeyiɣi ƒe 1.83% me. Le fefeɣi si me trɔtrɔ 200 le me la, àkpɔ gabubu ade ɖe wo nɔewo yome zi ɖeka ya teti zi geɖe.

Nukokoe sue

Dziɖuɖu sue geɖe, gabubu gã ɖeka si dzɔna zi ʋɛ. Eye wò ŋutɔe xea fe ɖe eta.

Dziɖuɖu sue geɖe, gabubu gã ɖeka si dzɔna zi ʋɛ. Eye wò ŋutɔe xea fe ɖe eta.

Akɔntabubu ƒe nyataƒoƒoMartingale ɖoɖo la le roulette me tsɔa mɔnukpɔkpɔ gã be nàkpɔ viɖe sue ɖɔlia mɔnukpɔkpɔ sue be nàbu ga gã. Enye adzɔgbeɖeɖe (insurance) si wodzra le mɔ tɔtrɔ dzi: èxɔa ga sue le zã geɖe me, eye wò ŋutɔe xea fe gã si dzɔna zi ʋɛ la. Edzia bɛtga si nèɖona le fefeɣi ɖeka me ɖe edzi, eya ta edzia gabubu si wokpɔ mɔ na le fefeɣi ɖeka me hã ɖe edzi. Meɖea kasino ƒe viɖe dzi kpɔtɔ o, eye mate ŋu aɖe edzi kpɔtɔ o. Ne èzã Martingale aɖaŋu le roulette me ko hã la, nya teƒe si wòagbã le hafi: kple bɛtga gɔmetɔ $10 kple seɖoƒe $500 la, enye gabubu ade ɖe wo nɔewo yome, nu si dzɔna 1.8% le agbagbadzedze ɖe sia ɖe me. Kpɔ Gaƒoƒu dzi kpɔkpɔ kple Gabubu ƒe seɖoƒe / viɖe ƒe seɖoƒe.
Adzɔgbeɖeɖe si wodzra le mɔ tɔtrɔ dzi: ga sue le zã ɖe sia ɖe me, eye fefewɔla la ŋutɔe xea fe gã si dzɔna zi ʋɛ la.